GARI's cheat-sheet on the likelihood of an Iranian deal

This is GARI's cheat-sheet on the likelihood of an Iranian deal, from which it stems that the US claims on a possible deal are either a bluff or a naiveté.

Of course, we might be missing some unknown unknowns or known unknowns, but it really doesn't feel that way. That is why I would double down on our yesterday's scenario of weekend escalation, unless the administration finds a way out before the weekend.

Such a 'way out' would be Iran's surrender (almost zero chance) or declared victory and bowing out (not unimaginable), handing control over Hormuz effectively to the IRGC and leaving the mess to the others to deal with. Of course, this would leave Iran stronger in the mid to long term, Russia and China with it and the economic consequences for years to stay.

Of course, there is a scenario where some sort of ground operation over the weekend will free up the Strait AND make Iran to back down, but, again, there is almost zero chance of that happening.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/michal-ko%C5%99an-4a817712_this-is-garis-cheat-sheet-on-the-likelihood-activity-7442822671668613120-noBN?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAABSvRNQBe1gR1tjSdrjkrPIqg9_g3ub_OUw