Hormuz Stabilisation vs Market Mispricing
22 March 2026
Overnight, the throughput through the Strait of Hormuz seems to have stabilized around 5 - 7 % avg higher than in the first two weeks of the conflict.
What is likely happening is that some countries (India yesterday, Iraq tonight and, latest, Turkey overland) are capable to negotiate a free passage, hugging the northern Iranian coast. That is quite a breakthrough development, moreover, Iran is thus trying to showcase that it has Hormuz still under control.
Trump's abolishing his previous desperate calls for help (and renewed slashing out against allies) suggests either that he believes that the yesterday's Israeli killing of Iran's security chief, Ali Larijani was the last piece before the Iranian regimes crumble, or has some other intelligence suggesting there is some light at the end of the Hormuz tunnel. Or - in my opinion most likely - it is just another case of gyration of a delusional mind surrounded by loyalists.
It doesn't look like Iran is backing down, but markets seem to look beyond the immediate physical restrictions of oil on the market, pricing in macro-economic headwinds, and stagflation in conflation with riding the Trump's optimistic wave.
Outlook - nothing had structurally actually changed to suggest that Brent oil should not sit in the 104 - 107 bracket by the end of the week in terms of physical availability of oil on global markets but investors seem start pricing in other factors or just riding the latest downward way.