Intelligence Briefings

Markets seems to finally look through the headlines (and Mr. Trump's reoccurring attempts to calm things down by saying random things). This might actually change the whole dynamics, if this realignment with reality sticks

This is GARI's cheat-sheet on the likelihood of an Iranian deal, from which it stems that the US claims on a possible deal are either a bluff or a naiveté.

What stands out, when placed next to the developments in the Gulf, is how little of this is reflected in market pricing. Oil should, by any reasonable reading of the physical situation, be trading materially higher, and broader markets should be showing far more stress. We are looking at a concentrated military buildup around a chokepoint through which a significant share of global energy flows, combined with a negotiation space that is narrow and fragile at best, and a clear risk that even a limited operation would spill over into infrastructure, shipping and energy systems across the region. That is not a marginal risk profile, yet markets continue to react mainly to signals of possible talks, as if the underlying configuration could be unwound quickly.

For many companies it is direct margin risk. For traders it is pure signal.
Here is something interesting from our current projections at GARI Enterprise.

Why the current wave of AI (text, image, speech generation) may lose user trust before it delivers real economic returns.

Current analysis of the Iran escalation focuses on inflation, energy prices, and growth, but largely overlooks productivity—the variable that ultimately determines long-term economic performance. The paper argues that the duration of the conflict is now irrelevant - the Genie of uncertainty (entropy) is already out of bottle and the productivity hit is almost certain.

Historical experience after the 1970s oil shocks suggests that such environments can suppress productivity growth for extended periods, and today the effect may be broader, given that rising friction now spans not only energy but also trade, technology, and finance.

At the same time, despite massive investment, AI has yet to deliver a clear aggregate productivity boost, and growing market skepticism toward both traditional software models and large-scale AI spending points to a deeper issue: the environment itself is becoming less conducive to efficient capital allocation, further reinforced by declining trust in institutions and increasing systemic uncertainty.

Crisis escalation.
Markets searching for signal.

​

Energy disruption is widening beyond shipping constraints to include infrastructure risk, storage saturation in Iraq, and contested control of Hormuz transit, driving further spikes in oil and gas prices and triggering significant stress across Asian markets.

Markets are pricing duration risk in the U.S.–Iran escalation rather than immediate supply collapse. Shipping and insurance disruptions dominate for now, but prolonged instability or sustained infrastructure damage would shift energy markets into a structural repricing regime with broader macroeconomic consequences.

Oil price movements reflect elevated shipment and insurance risk around the Strait of Hormuz following recent U.S.–Iran escalation, with Iran unlikely to physically block the strait but ongoing uncertainty pushing premiums and freight costs higher.

Industrial rotation and geopolitical uncertainty are creating upside pressure on silver, copper and aluminium, with oil remaining structurally resilient. Shipment costs and insurance premiums continue to embed elevated risk.

Copper’s late-2025 acceleration was driven more by macro uncertainty and cross-asset synchronization than physical tightness, even as inventories rebuilt. Ongoing investment in high-risk frontier projects reinforces copper’s embedded strategic role in industrial and energy systems.