Oil at $110.
23 March 2026
Oil at $110.
Crisis escalation.
Markets searching for signal.
Over the past weeks, GARI Enterprise has been continuously monitoring and predicting Brent price behaviour during the current Middle East energy crisis — using live scenario modelling and daily intelligence overlays.
While headlines focused on dramatic escalation narratives, our models consistently identified a more nuanced reality.
📊 March 12–14:
Following threats around Hormuz and attacks on key infrastructure, GARI projected that Brent would remain within the ~105–107 range into the next market open, assuming no additional calming policy signals.
📊 March 20 update (08:00 UTC):
We assessed that despite direct targeting of core energy infrastructure, coordinated signalling and supply offset expectations were actively stabilising the system — keeping markets in “Scenario A – Controlled disruption.”
➡️ Projected short-term Brent range: 106–112 USD
Today, with Brent trading around ~110, the market remains broadly within that projected corridor.
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How we structure crisis forecasting
At GARI, oil forecasting during geopolitical shocks is not based on single-factor assumptions.
We combine:
• macro supply-demand modelling
• historical conflict trajectory overlays
• live modelling of missing barrels from global flows
• geopolitical and infrastructure risk intelligence
• scenario-based forward pricing ranges
This allows us to update projections daily — not after the fact.
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Current system view
We still assess the market as being between Scenario A (managed disruption) and Scenario B (structural escalation) territory.
The system remains fragile — one successful strike on major export or refining nodes could push Brent materially higher.
Longer-term scenario modelling now suggests:
• Managed disruption: ~110–116 Brent
• Structural escalation: ~120–130 Brent
• De-escalation: ~98–104 Brent
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What this means for decision-makers
In volatile commodity environments:
Timing procurement
Timing hedging
Timing inventory build
Timing trading exposure
…becomes as important as price level itself.
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📩 We provide daily oil price scenario updates and forward projections for clients navigating this crisis.
If your organisation needs early visibility into commodity price direction and geopolitical supply risk:
Message me to access current projections
Graphic: Crude Oil: Brent - Daily [Europe]
❗️Important note ❗️This graphic represents the macro-economic baseline of our projection. In practice, client models are dynamically updated with additional layers capturing the most recent economic movements and political developments.